Funding and outcomes analysis of 100,000 startups
The dataset contains records for 100,000 startups and is designed for machine learning, data analysis, and outcome prediction. It covers the key factors influencing a company's growth, funding, and final outcome.
The dataset includes information on founders' experience, funding history, team size, market potential, product demand, and investor types. Each record is labeled with the final outcome, making it possible to build models that predict whether a company will succeed or shut down.
Possible outcomes:
Phik correlation - a metric measuring the strength of the relationship between two variables:
Below is an interactive dashboard showing the relationships between key factors:
The dataset includes information on founders' experience, funding history, team size, market potential, product demand, and investor types. Each record is labeled with the final outcome, making it possible to build models that predict whether a company will succeed or shut down.
Possible outcomes:
- IPO - the company goes public.
- Acquisition - the company is bought by another organization.
- Failure - the startup shuts down or fails to reach a successful outcome.
Phik correlation - a metric measuring the strength of the relationship between two variables:
- Works with both numerical and categorical variables (e.g. "Outcome" or "Investor type").
- Detects nonlinear patterns that standard correlation misses.
- Scale: 0 - no relationship; 1 - perfect relationship.
Below is an interactive dashboard showing the relationships between key factors:
Analysis of the Phik correlation matrix and the distribution of company outcomes revealed several key trends.
Key findings
Revenue and active user count are the main predictors of startup success. These metrics show the strongest correlation with startup outcomes (0.58 and 0.50 respectively). The relationship between them is even stronger (0.77), confirming that growing the user base is the fastest path to financial stability.
Experience matters. Companies led by founders with more extensive prior startup founder experience show a higher rate of successful outcomes (IPO + Acquisition).
The critical point. The highest number of startup shutdowns occurs between the first and second funding rounds. By the third or fourth round, the number of failures drops, while the likelihood of an acquisition or IPO peaks.
Industry matters less. The Phik matrix shows near-zero correlation (0.00-0.01) between a specific industry (AI, Crypto, SaaS, etc.) and the final outcome. Operational effectiveness is a far more significant success factor than choosing a "hyped" niche.
Paths to success. To go public, a startup needs to show explosive revenue growth with a relatively smaller user base compared to other groups. Acquired companies often have large user bases, but their monetization is lower than that of future public companies. If revenue growth slows while active users keep growing, the risk of shutdown becomes critical.
Tier 1 VC. Startups backed by top-tier investment funds show the fastest revenue growth. This points to rigorous selection:
The Crypto industry has the highest average company success rate. Serial founders and alumni of major tech companies help "pull" these startups to success.
Experience matters. Companies led by founders with more extensive prior startup founder experience show a higher rate of successful outcomes (IPO + Acquisition).
The critical point. The highest number of startup shutdowns occurs between the first and second funding rounds. By the third or fourth round, the number of failures drops, while the likelihood of an acquisition or IPO peaks.
Industry matters less. The Phik matrix shows near-zero correlation (0.00-0.01) between a specific industry (AI, Crypto, SaaS, etc.) and the final outcome. Operational effectiveness is a far more significant success factor than choosing a "hyped" niche.
Paths to success. To go public, a startup needs to show explosive revenue growth with a relatively smaller user base compared to other groups. Acquired companies often have large user bases, but their monetization is lower than that of future public companies. If revenue growth slows while active users keep growing, the risk of shutdown becomes critical.
Tier 1 VC. Startups backed by top-tier investment funds show the fastest revenue growth. This points to rigorous selection:
- Tier 1 venture investors focus on a small number of companies with significant revenue potential.
- Founders' background or company industry matters less if the startup has strong prospects.
The Crypto industry has the highest average company success rate. Serial founders and alumni of major tech companies help "pull" these startups to success.
Custom analysis opportunities
The dashboard and key findings are based on synthetic data, but the underlying logic is fully applicable to real-world scenarios. Using this approach and data structure, a similar study can be conducted on real cases to identify the factors behind startup success and failure. The proposed methodology can be customized for the needs of venture funds and corporations, using specific metrics to build accurate predictive models.
In-depth data analysis makes it possible to:
Contact us to discuss the format of a pilot study or an assessment of market potential based on real data. Turn information into a competitive advantage!
In-depth data analysis makes it possible to:
- quantify venture risk;
- identify critical metrics and optimize strategy between funding rounds;
- screen out weak projects early by focusing on revenue correlation;
- increase venture portfolio ROI by 20-30%.
Contact us to discuss the format of a pilot study or an assessment of market potential based on real data. Turn information into a competitive advantage!
See also
Periodic table of AI startups – 14 company categories
Classification of 305 AI startups that raised funding between February 2025 and February 2026 by funding, count, annual growth, momentum trend, and ecosystem.
Who bought U.S. oil & products in 2025 - how that may change in 2026
A detailed analysis of U.S. Energy Information Administration data on U.S. exports of crude oil and petroleum products, broken down by country and region.
25-year risk-return analysis of investment portfolios
Risk and return are directly related: the higher an asset's potential profit, the higher the probability of financial loss. Safe instruments deliver minimal returns.
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Материалы, представленные в данном разделе, не являются индивидуальными инвестиционными рекомендациями. Финансовые инструменты, упомянутые в данном разделе, могут не подходить Вам, не соответствовать Вашему инвестиционному профилю, финансовому положению, опыту инвестиций, знаниям, инвестиционным целям, отношению к риску и доходности. Информация не является публичной офертой, предложением или приглашением инвестировать в фонды и/или стратегии, приобрести или продать ценные бумаги, совершить с ними сделки.
Результат инвестирования в прошлом не определяет дохода в будущем. Не является рекламой ценных бумаг. Перед принятием инвестиционного решения инвестору необходимо самостоятельно оценить экономические риски и выгоды, налоговые, юридические, бухгалтерские последствия заключения сделки, свою готовность и возможность принять такие риски.
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